USA V BELGIUM statistical analysis

[Scott NelsonParticipant]

Members,

has anyone by any chance done a statistical analysis on the USA Belgium game, or have access to one?  The FIFA.com site claims that we had 52% of the possession in the 120 minutes, and 579 passes to 459 for Belgium.

Given the game I watched is this even possible?

At one point in the telecast ESPN showed a graphic claiming possession was 51-49, and everybody in the bar I was in started laughing.

I know that stats and the eye do not always agree, and the possession stat is always a bit contrived, given that there is plenty of time no one is in possession, but no matter how you measure it I find it pretty hard to believe that we had the longer and completed more passes than Belgium.

Thoughts? I am going to try to do my own homework but just got back into town with two weeks of catchup work waiting for me.

 

And yes, I checked.  the stats were for 2014, not 1930 😉

• This topic was modified 10 years, 4 months ago by  Scott Nelson.

[GaryKeymaster]

Haven’t really looked into it Scott.
Just going off Google’s display

But you’re absolutely correct, we need to be very careful interpreting all those possession %’s.

[Devin RairdonParticipant]

Here is some detail on how Opta figures out its possession.

http://www.optasports.com/news-area/blog-a-ball-possessed.aspx

Here is the statistical information from Opta. You can dig around on it and see more detailed information on where the passes were made.

http://www.fourfourtwo.com/statszone/4-2013/matches/731822/summary#tabs-wrapper-anchor

 

[Justin BoatmanParticipant]

Scott, so true on how misleading the possession stat was for that match. When they showed 51% to 49% I was thinking, “Are we watching the same match?!?!”

The US midfield put soooooo much pressure on the defense and Howard because they could not hold onto the ball for any extended amount of time. I don’t expect the US to dominate a game through possession or dictate a game against an opponent like Belgium or Germany, but you HAVE to be able to keep the ball for a little bit just to let the defense and GK come up for air and breath for a bit.

[Andrew MullalyParticipant]

I kept saying we need to hold the ball  longer.  The way that game was going we should have passed it around in our half for as long as Belgium would sit back.  Simple movement and holding the ball would have given everyone some time to rest on the ball and would have forced Belgium to stretch instead of sitting in their half and waiting to apply pressure.

The real tragedy is the few times we did that we immediately lost the ball in transition at midfield and then Belgium sliced through our line.  No “tranquilo” in the center means increased pressure on the back four to stop counters anywhere Belgium decided to attack.  And the US with “more possession” allowed Lalas to open his idiot mouth and babble about possession like he knew something.

I kept wondering if he felt like a school kid sitting next to Martinez. There’s someone who’s soccer knowledge oozes from every pore.  (I doubt it.  Lalas strikes me as someone who thinks his shit don’t stink.)

[Scott NelsonParticipant]

Thanks Devin, that is exactly what I needed.  This all started because some apologist was telling me we woulda/should/coulda/nearly beat Belgium, and deservedly so, because the FIFA.com stats showed we outpossessed them.

I told him he was out of his mind, but after watching the first half, my analysis supported the stats. The US did indeed complete about 183 passes to 153 (some guess work was required when the camera cut away from the action).  It is amazing how differenta game looks upon a second viewing, especially with the primary lens changed from fan to coach.  Through both lenses we were still significantly outplayed.

Looks like the old saying is true:  There are Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Not all possession is created equal

• This reply was modified 10 years, 4 months ago by  Scott Nelson.
• This reply was modified 10 years, 4 months ago by  Scott Nelson.

[Joel LorahParticipant]

I am eagerly and patiently awaiting the next 3four3 blog article. I wonder if it will focus on the WC winner, a specific strategy employed by a manager or how a special player came to the fore to lead their team. Or maybe the article will discuss the misnomer that the US had a successful World Cup. A 1-1-2 record and being  jostled around the field in 3 of the games does not engender me with any feeling that we have improved. The notion by some of how the US imposed our will at certain points in the games against Belgium or Germany is a fallacy. Those two  teams were completely content to defend and what is even more disheartending to me is that after the Germany goal, when the Germans were likely completely content to sit on a 1 goal lead, we STILL could not find, keep and/or retain the ball. I am at a total loss for what I saw from the USMNT. Yes we played decent against the disembodied and dis-spirited Portuguese. I saw moments of individual brilliance (Dempsey goal against Ghana) and bravery ( Bradley running for miles and miles) and stellar play from individuals ( Howard and I have to say  by J. Jones who I tend to think is emblematic for what is wrong with the game stateside) but generally I think the National team’s play was dreck by comparison to the Mexicans or Costa Ricans. We are still light years away.

[Joel LorahParticipant]

TRANQUILO. No kidding Andrew. How many times I saw us finally get the ball, string together one or two passes than, opps there goes the long ball turnover- lets rush rush rush. Damn it was awful. To be honest I am completely despondent and aggravated that this 3four3 line of thinking has lifted the veil from my eyes. I wish sometimes I would have taken the blue pill. I used to be a lemming. I used to live in the Matrix happily ignorant to the truth. I used to think success was measured by holding the Germans to a 0-1 loss. I used to think our athleticism and heart and courage and bravery was what set us apart. Now those qualities are the albatross I want to sling into the ocean. TO HELL WITH  COURAGE AND BRAVERY. I want sophistication. and style. I want to keep the damn ball. not be in such a God Damn rush all the time. I want to not be totally outclassed by european and south american and african nations then be told what I just saw was success. NO. IT WAS NOT. Now I have to be part of the solution and with that comes responsibility — even if that means I only affect the lens through which my children or players view and experience the game.

• This reply was modified 10 years, 4 months ago by  Joel Lorah.

[Paul GruberParticipant]

Scott.  Your quote “Not all possession is created equal”.  Love it.  Going to use it. 

As I tell my teams.  “You’ll hear the other coach yell at his team to possess the ball.  Well if it were just that easy, we could have saved ourselves all the work we did learning how to do it.”

Germany, wow.  I have them winning the tournament playing Argentina.  Just didn’t expect the match to go the way it did against Brazil.

[Scott NelsonParticipant]

@Andrew M

“I kept wondering if he felt like a school kid sitting next to Martinez. There’s someone who’s soccer knowledge oozes from every pore.  (I doubt it.  Lalas strikes me as someone who thinks his shit don’t stink.”

I think Alexi doesn’t know what he doesn’t know.  He’s a victim of the same soccer environment as most of us

Add arrogance on top of that, and it’s a bad combination. If you actually think you know everything: you lose the capacity to learn anything.

He is not a soccer expert, he just plays one on TV.

 

 

• This reply was modified 10 years, 4 months ago by  Scott Nelson.

[Joel LorahParticipant]

He’s not going anywhere either. Guy is only in his 40’s. The conversation and paradigm will have to be changed with him plodding along next to Ruud and Roberto.

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